Global : Mobile Subscription and Penetration Forecast 2008-16

• Global Mobile Penetration reaches 82 percent in Q3 2011 and mobile subscriptions now total around 5.8 billion. However, the actual number of subscribers is around 3.9 billion, since many subscribers have several subscriptions.
• India and China accounted for approximately 40 percent of the estimated – 135 million net additions during Q3 2011, adding around 20 and 30 million subscriptions respectively. For India, this figure is lower than previous quarters due to operators increasing focus on active subscribers.
• Indonesia, Brazil and Bangladesh follow in terms of net additions.
• Mobile subscriptions have grown around 13 percent year-on-year and 2 percent quarter-on-quarters.
• Around 75 percent of subscriptions are GSM. 14 percent are WCDMA/HSPA.
• Mobile broadband subscriptions have grown around 60 percent year–on-year and have reached close to 900 million.
• There is continued strong momentum for Smartphone uptake in all regions. Approximately 30 percent of all handsets sold in Q3 were Smartphone’s, compared to around 20 percent for the full year 2010. However, only around 10 percent of the worldwide installed base of subscriptions uses Smartphone’s, which means that there is considerable room for further uptake.

Subscription Development – Fixed & Mobile:

Demand for fixed broadband maintains a robust place. Net additions during Q2 2011 reached 14 million. Global fixed broadband subscriptions reached around 550 million, mainly boosted by strong growth of DSL in China.

China is the largest single country in terms of fixed broadband subscriptions with around 140 million, followed by the US and Japan. DSL represents more than 60 percent of all fixed broadband subscriptions followed by cable and Fiber-To-The-Home/Building (FTTH/B). Fixed broadband growth will remain steady over the coming years.

The number of fixed voice subscriptions will continue its downward trend as users increasingly switch to mobile and VoIP substitutions. The number or mobile broadband subscriptions will approximately match the number of fixed voice subscriptions by the end of 2011 and is predicted to be close to 5 billion by 2016. Mobile PCs and tablet subscriptions are also increasing and are expected to almost close the gap with the number of fixed broadband subscriptions by 2016.

In total, mobile subscriptions will reach above 8 billion by 2016, excluding the growth potential from M2M and other connected devices.

Regional Mobile Growth:

In Q3 2011, Asia Pacific (APAC), including China and India, Contributed the largest portion of new subscriptions with 55 percent, followed by Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa (CEMA) with 30 percent.  Western Europe added 2 percent, North America 3 percent and Latin America 10 percent. China currently has the highest number of subscriptions at above 900 million, followed by India and the US.

Figure 4 projects reported mobile subscriptions in each region up until 2016 and is characterized by steady growth. This is especially evident in the Asian regions where there are many developing nations. The number of mobile subscriptions in the APAC region is predicted to grow by 1.3 billion by 2016, representing 55 percent of global net additions.

Subscription VS Subscriber:

There is a difference between the number of subscriptions and subscribers. This is due to the fact that many subscribers have several subscriptions. Reasons for this could include users lowering their traffic cost by using optimized subscriptions for different type of calls, or having different subscriptions for mobile PCs/tablets and for Mobile phones. In addition, it takes time before inactive subscriptions are removed from operator databases. Consequently, penetration can easily reach above 100 percent, which in the case in many countries today.

Mobile Technology:

Figure projects reported mobile subscriptions by technology. Subscription are represented under the most advanced technology the handset is capable of using. Even though HSPA subscriptions are growing rapidly today, GSM subscriptions will continue to lead until the end of the forecast period. This is based on the fact that new lo-end users entering networks in growing markets will use the cheapest handsets available. However, the rapid migration to more advanced technologies in the developed world means that the global number of GSM subscriptions will start to decline from 2012. LTE is currently being deployed and built out in all regions and will be used by a small but growing share of the total subscriber base by 2016.